Keywords
Diabetes, Risk Factors, First-ever Foot Ulceration, Systematic Review
Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) are a serious complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), significantly contributing to mortality and morbidity in this population. Annually, approximately 18.6 million people with DM develop DFUs, with up to 34% experiencing a foot ulcer during their lifetime. DFUs are a leading cause of limb and life-threatening infections, lower limb amputations, and increased hospitalisations. Despite these public health challenges, there is a lack of research focusing on the primary prevention of DFUs, particularly the prevention of first-ever ulceration.
To systematically review and synthesise research evidence and meta-analysis of previous research findings and derive conclusions regarding risk factors for the development of first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes.
Four English and three Chinese databases will be utilised to identify eligible studies reporting risk factors for the first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes. Two independent researchers will review the literature, extract relevant data, and assess the risk of bias of included studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and standardised mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for nominal and continuous data will be calculated employing either a fixed-effects or random-effects model based on heterogeneity (I² < 50% for fixed-effects and I² > 50% for random-effects models). All statistical analyses will be conducted using Stata Software Version 16.
PROSPERO (CRD42024508855)
Diabetes, Risk Factors, First-ever Foot Ulceration, Systematic Review
Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) present a severe chronic complication of diabetes mellitus (DM). Due to the rising prevalence of DM, these complications are a major contributor to the burden on the global healthcare system. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF)1, the number of adults living with DM reached 537 million in 2021 and is projected to reach 643 million by 2030 and 783 million by 2045. Worldwide, about 6.3% of people with DM experienced a DFU, with up to 34% developing one during their lifetime2.
DFUs have a significant impact on individuals, family members and the healthcare system, as DFUs are associated with a high risk of hospitalisation, amputation, and mortality. Existing data indicates that approximately 20% of individuals living with a DFU required hospitalisation, with up to 20% of hospitalised patients undergoing amputation3–5. The mortality rate following incident DFUs stands at 49.1% at five years and escalates to 76.9% at ten years4. Additionally, DFUs admissions also incur the highest average per-patients medical costs compared to admissions with non-DFU-related DM patients6–8. A case-control study conducted in the U.S. revealed that the annual medical costs for each patient with DFUs range from $28,031 for Medicare to $26,881 for private insurance, making the cost for patients with DFU twice that of patients living with DM without DFUs6.
The first-ever foot ulcer is defined by the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) as “an ulcer occurring in a patient who has never before had a foot ulcer”9. Identifying the risk factors for the occurrence of DFUs and providing evidence for prevention strategies is an important topic. Guo et al.10 and Huang et al.11 conducted systematic studies to pool risk factors for DFU recurrence. Another meta-analysis by Crawford investigated predictors for DFU occurrence, but this study did not differentiate between first-ever and recurrent cases12. Recently, a prospective study characterised first-ever and recurrence DFUs, highlighting differences in patients’ characteristics between these two groups13. In addition, it is worth noting that a history of ulcers serves as the primary predictor for the recurrence of DFUs14. Consequently, there is a need to explore the risk factors specifically associated with the first-ever foot ulcers to prevent their onset.
However, factors specifically associated with the first-ever foot ulcers remain unclear. Several studies15–17 have investigated the risk factors associated with the first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes, and there is significant diversity among the findings of these studies. For example, a retrospective study identified the duration of DM as a significant risk factor for the first-ever foot ulcers18, which contrasted with the results of another 8-year prospective study conducted in the UK17, which found no significant association between the duration of diabetes and the first-ever foot ulcers. Similarly, disagreements on age as a risk factor for the first-ever foot ulcers were found in the study of Panagoulias et al.19 and Adem et al.18, with the former study suggesting that patients who developed DFUs were older, while the latter study did not show a significant difference. Therefore, there is a need to synthesise and analyse existing evidence, specifically focusing on the risk factors for the first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes.
Thus, we outline a systematic review and meta-analysis study protocol to estimate the risk factors contributing to the first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes and offering evidence-based strategies for DFUs prevention.
The study protocol for this systematic review will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols guideline (PRISMA-P)19,20 (see Supplementary File S1). Meta-analysis procedures will align with the Meta-Analyses and Systematic Reviews of Observational Studies guideline (MOOSE)21. Furthermore, the protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number CRD42024508855.
A comprehensive search strategy was devised to identify potential articles across seven databases: PubMed/Medline, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI), Weipu Database (VIP), and Wanfang Database. The reference lists of the included studies will be examined for additional relevant studies, and citation tracking will be employed to identify further pertinent research. A research librarian was involved in formulating this search strategy. Our approach incorporated relevant keywords representing three core concepts: "diabetes mellitus", "diabetic foot ulcers", and "risk factors". Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms were employed in PubMed/Medline and the Cochrane Library to further refine the search for articles relevant to our topic. Boolean operators (OR, AND) and truncation (*) to capture variations in word endings and quotation marks (" ") for exact phrases were consistently utilised throughout the search strategy (see Supplementary data, File S2 for the search strategy).
Studies will be eligible if they report risk factors potentially contributing to the first-ever foot ulcers in patients diagnosed with either Type 1 or Type 2 DM. In this study, “first-ever foot ulcer” will be defined as “a foot ulcer occurring in a patient who has never before had a foot ulcer”9. To be included, studies had to be retrospective or prospective cohorts, cross-sectional or case-control studies published in English or Chinese.
Due to limitations in translation capabilities, non-English/Chinese articles will be excluded. Additionally, intervention studies, review articles, case reports, letters, comments, meeting abstracts, studies not published in peer-reviewed journals, and incomplete or non-full text articles will be excluded due to duplication or limited quality of evidence (see Table 1).
The search results will be exported to Covidence data-management software for screening, and duplicates will be eliminated using the software's functionality. Two reviewers (Tao Y and Zhang D) will independently assess the titles and abstracts of all retrieved studies to exclude studies following the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Full texts of the remaining studies will be evaluated by two reviewers (Tao Y and Zhang D) for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Any discrepancies between the reviewers during the study selection process will be resolved through discussion until a consensus is reached. If necessary, a third reviewer (Liu YL) will be consulted to make the final decision.
Data will be extracted into a predefined Excel spreadsheet. Two reviewers (Tao Y and Zhang D) will independently extract and cross-check the extracted information. The following data will be extracted:
i. Study characteristics: last name of the first author, publication year, enrolment year, country, setting, study design and follow-up period (if applicable).
ii. Participants' characteristics include population, population size (DFUs/total), age, gender, type of DM, and duration of diabetes.
iii. Outcome: Estimated effects (e.g., relative risks (RRs), odds ratio (ORs), or hazard ratio (HRs)) for all risk factors for first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes mentioned in included studies. For studies without reported risk estimates, raw data (e.g., means, standard deviations (SDs), median, inter-quartile range (IQR), and frequency data) will be extracted to calculate effect sizes.
The methodological quality of the included studies will be assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS)22. This scale encompasses three main domains: selection of study groups, comparability of the groups, and assessment of outcome (for cohort studies) or exposure (for case-control studies). Total scores on the NOS range from 0 to 9 stars, with 6–9 stars indicating a low risk of bias, 4–5 stars indicating a medium risk of bias, and 1–3 stars indicating a high risk of bias. The quality of evidence for each risk factor and the incidence of first-ever foot ulcers will be evaluated using the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach23.
Statistical analyses will be performed using Stata Software Version 1624. When more than one studies report the same risk factor with consistent definitions, pooled ORs for nominal data and standard mean differences (SMD) for continuous variables will be computed. For the purpose of this study, RRs and HRs reported in the included studies will be treated as estimates of ORs. For studies that do not provide reported risk estimates, calculations will be carried out for both nominal data (ORs) and continuous variables (SMD) using the original data. Corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) will be computed for all parameters. Descriptive presentation will be employed for lack of sufficient data within the literature or risk factors identified in only one study.
Heterogeneity among included studies will be assessed using the Cochran Q-test and the I2 test. A significance level of P < 0.10 for the Q-test will indicate potential study variance, recognising its limited power. Meta-analysis will be conducted using either a fixed-effects or random-effects model based on the absence (I2 < 50%) or presence (I2 > 50%) of statistically significant heterogeneity. A separate subgroup analysis based on study type and study quality will be conducted to explore the source of heterogeneity if at least ten studies reported a certain factor for first-ever foot ulcers. Sensitivity analyses by removing a single study at the time will be performed to examine the robustness of the pooled results. For meta-analyses that contain at least five studies, publication bias will be evaluated using a funnel plot, where asymmetry may indicate potential bias. Egger’s test will be employed to quantify the bias. To address potential bias, the trim-and-fill method will be used. A two-tailed P < 0.05 will be considered statistically significant.
The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to collect and statistically analyse all accessible data to identify potential risk factors for the first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes. The outcomes of this study will enhance the current understanding of DFUs and equip healthcare professionals with information that could facilitate earlier identification of individuals at heightened risk of DFUs. Consequently, this could lead to the implementation of improved management strategies for diabetic patients predisposed to DFUs, potentially resulting in reduced mortality and alleviating the economic burden associated with DFUs.
Ethical approval and consent were not required.
Zenodo: A systematic review and meta analysis risk study protocol
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1428249025
This project contains following data:
- S2 Search strategy (1).docx
PRISMA-P Checklist for ‘Study protocol: A systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for the first-ever foot ulcers in patients with diabetes.’ https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1428249025
Data are available under the terms of the Creative Commons Zero "No rights reserved" data waiver (CC0 1.0 Public domain dedication) (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/).
Tao Y and Zhang D designed the work and developed the search strategy for this study. Tao Y, Zhang D and Liu YL will review the literature, extract the data and assess the quality of studies. Tao Y drafted the present protocol. Tao Y will perform the statistical analysis and write up of manuscript. MacGilchrist C, Kirwan E and McIntosh C contributed to the proposal's writing and review.
Is the rationale for, and objectives of, the study clearly described?
No
Is the study design appropriate for the research question?
Yes
Are sufficient details of the methods provided to allow replication by others?
Yes
Are the datasets clearly presented in a useable and accessible format?
Yes
References
1. Tang WH, Zhao YN, Cheng ZX, Xu JX, et al.: Risk factors for diabetic foot ulcers: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Vascular. 2024; 32 (3): 661-669 PubMed Abstract | Publisher Full TextCompeting Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: I am expertise in diabetes and risk factors for first and recurrent diabetic foot ulcers. I have also expertise in social determents of diabetes.
Is the rationale for, and objectives of, the study clearly described?
Yes
Is the study design appropriate for the research question?
Partly
Are sufficient details of the methods provided to allow replication by others?
Partly
Are the datasets clearly presented in a useable and accessible format?
Yes
References
1. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration NCD-RisC: Worldwide trends in diabetes prevalence and treatment from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants.Lancet. 2024; 404 (10467): 2077-2093 PubMed Abstract | Publisher Full TextCompeting Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Diabetic foot, inpatient diabetes, perioperative diabetes care
Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article:
Invited Reviewers | ||
---|---|---|
1 | 2 | |
Version 1 07 Jan 25 |
read | read |
Provide sufficient details of any financial or non-financial competing interests to enable users to assess whether your comments might lead a reasonable person to question your impartiality. Consider the following examples, but note that this is not an exhaustive list:
Sign up for content alerts and receive a weekly or monthly email with all newly published articles
Register with HRB Open Research
Already registered? Sign in
Submission to HRB Open Research is open to all HRB grantholders or people working on a HRB-funded/co-funded grant on or since 1 January 2017. Sign up for information about developments, publishing and publications from HRB Open Research.
We'll keep you updated on any major new updates to HRB Open Research
The email address should be the one you originally registered with F1000.
You registered with F1000 via Google, so we cannot reset your password.
To sign in, please click here.
If you still need help with your Google account password, please click here.
You registered with F1000 via Facebook, so we cannot reset your password.
To sign in, please click here.
If you still need help with your Facebook account password, please click here.
If your email address is registered with us, we will email you instructions to reset your password.
If you think you should have received this email but it has not arrived, please check your spam filters and/or contact for further assistance.
Comments on this article Comments (0)